Without picking the right horses and knowing how to play them, you are not going to turn a profit, regardless of the size of your bankroll. Do your homework. We all hit slumps regardless of how sound our handicapping is.
The more money you have on the line, the more confident you need to be in your handicapping and decisions. Money Management If there was a perfect system for money management, you would think someone may have found the Holy Grail!
There are several prevailing methods of money management that have been kicked around by the writers in the handicapping community. Which one is right for you? That depends on how you play. Kelly Criterion This is one of the most popular and oft-discussed strategies. You are optimizing your wager size on the perceived edge you have on the race based on the fair odds that you have assigned your pick versus the track odds. Percentage of Bankroll This theory is based on the concept that you will play a certain percentage of your bankroll on a horse.
Maybe a certain angle provides more of an edge or a higher win percentage than other angles? In that case you can vary the percentage of bankroll you wager based on your confidence in the play. On an angle that hits less often, you may elect to use a percentage that is lowered based on the strike rate.
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So… Read More. How about provincial areas? Some horses prefer to race on sticky, wet surfaces whereas others prefer hard, fast tracks. If the going gets tough or soft , stick to horses that you know have had success on similar ground in the past. Heavier horses will also typically find it tougher on softer, wetter ground, because running on this type of surface consumes more energy. Ground conditions on all-weather tracks stay consistent regardless of what mother nature throws at it.
You also need to look at track formation: is there a sharp incline at the end of the race? Is there a sharp bend half way through? Do the turns bear right, or bear left? These are all things you need to be considering, and weighing up against each potential horse you want to bet on — how will each particular horse be affected?
The most popular market with professional horse bettors is the outright victory market. Backing horses to win — when they offer value — is the best way to secure long-term profits in this game. This is because you end up risking too much money to essentially break even in the result of them placing. The two Canadian professors who wrote it argued that if you tracked enough variables, and had enough data, you could calculate better odds than the racetracks came up with.
In order to do that, you'd need to be a statistician, and so, "Benter taught himself advanced statistics and learned to write software on an early PC with a green-and-black screen," according to Chellel's article.
By now, he had teamed up with an ex-insurance actuary named Tony Woods--a fellow gambler who was also persona non grata in Vegas, and who had enough money to stake them for a while.
The two men set up shop in a dilapidated Hong Kong apartment, outfitted it with early computers, scoured facts about horse races, and poured the data into the statistical models. As certain as Benter was that he could handicap horse races, he realized now that they just didn't have enough data.
The partnership between Benter and Woods didn't survive these lean times. Benter wound up back in the U. He pulled together a few hundred thousand dollars over two years in the late s, and made a beeline again for Hong Kong. Second, Benter believed that at least in theory, he wouldn't run into the strong arm tactics that had convinced him to leave Las Vegas.
Hong Kong horse gambling was run by private clubs but the ultimate beneficiary was the government in the form of 10 percent of all tax revenues. And, the house made its money not by winning against the customers, but by taking 17 percent of the total pool as a commission. Benter fed his statistical model with about 17 data points about the history of every horse in every race he planned to bet on--things like the number of days that elapsed between each horse's run, and how that affected its performance.
He spent considerable effort trying to obtain and analyze a history of Hong Kong's daily weather, to see how might have affected race outcomes, but couldn't spot a pattern.
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